More than 1.5 million Marylanders expected to travel over Thanksgiving holiday

BALTIMORE, MD (November 20, 2025) – AAA is projecting that more than 1.5 million Marylanders will travel over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.  This year’s forecast is essentially flat, in comparison to the actual number of Marylanders who traveled over last year’s holiday but is still the highest number of travers projected for the holiday.

As usual, the majority of travelers will be driving to their holiday destinations. AAA is projecting that 91% of travelers – more than 1.37 million Marylanders – will be hitting the road, a minimal increase, compared to last year and 2019’s pre-pandemic level.  “Economic uncertainty has been a prevailing issue during 2025,” said Ragina Cooper Ali, spokesperson for AAA in Maryland and Washington, D.C. “But Americans have continued to prioritize travel especially for a holiday that is rooted in spending time with friends and family.” 

While the overall travel forecast and road travel for Maryland reflect only a small increase, compared to last year, both are record highs for the holiday, In fact, the Maryland travel forecast is expected to reach record-levels across all travel modes this holiday.

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon to be the most congested periods before Thanksgiving Day. Travelers returning home on Sunday should expect heavy traffic most of the day. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst backups, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times. Slow Down, Move Overfor emergency responders and other stopped vehicles on the side of the road to ensure everyone’s safety.

SOURCE: INRIX

As Thanksgiving approaches, the national gas price average as of Wednesday, November 19^th, was $3.09, three cents more than last year on the same date.

Maryland’s average on Wednesday was $3.12, down eight cents compared to last year.  While Maryland drivers are paying less than year ago prices, prices have been trending upward since last month.

“Drivers, including the 1.37 million Marylanders, who will be hitting the roads, will have something extra to be thankful for this holiday,” said Ali. “Gas prices in Maryland are trending about eight cents less than last year.”

Note: Percentages are rounded.

Air Travel

Despite recent concerns with air travel, the industry continues to rebound from the pandemic.  AAA is projecting over 104,000 Marylanders will fly to their holiday destinations, a 1.5% increase over last year, and more than an 11% jump from the nearly 93,000 who jetted off to their holiday destination over the 2019 Thanksgiving holiday.  “With the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifting commercial flight restrictions, earlier this week, those taking to the skies this Thanksgiving holiday should have less anxiety as the holiday approaches,” Ali said.

Other Travel Modes – Buses, Cruises and Trains

In the other category, AAA expects nearly 29,000 Maryland residents to travel by bus, train or cruise over the holiday weekend, a jump of nearly 6% over last year and slightly more than 6%, compared to 2019.

“From road trips along Interstate 95 and 295 to flights out of BWI and other airports in our region, Marylanders are willing to go the extra mile to spend time with loved ones,” said Ali.

AAA’s Thanksgiving forecast timeframe includes Tuesday (November 25^th) before Thanksgiving Day and Monday (December 1^st) after the holiday.

AAA’s National Travel Projections

• Nearly 82 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving. That’s a 1.8% increase over 2024 and is nearly 4% higher than 2019.  The increase this year amounts to 1.6 million more travelers than last year.
• At least 73 million are expected to travel by car, up 2% from last year and 15% higher than 2019 travel volumes.
• Air travel will be up 2.1% from last year and up nearly 15% over 2019 as more than 6 million are expected to take to the skies. 
• In the Other category, 2.48 million travelers are headed out of town for Thanksgiving by bus, train, or cruise ship. That’s an increase of 2% over last year and 5.2% higher than 2019 travel volumes.

Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 19, 2025.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

INRIX Methodology

INRIX blends statistically grounded models with real-world road behavior to forecast travel conditions on the most heavily traveled routes across the U.S. during peak holiday periods. INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike.

Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period

The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 25 to Monday, December 1, 2025. This Thanksgiving travel window was instituted starting in 2024. Historical results were calculated dating back to 2019 using the same seven-day period.

About S&P Global

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.

About MMGY

MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.

About INRIX   

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.  

About AAA:

AAA provides automotive, travel, and insurance services to more than 65.2 million members nationwide and more than 1 million members in Maryland.  AAA advocates for the safety and mobility of its members and has been committed to outstanding road service for more than 100 years.  AAA is a non-stock, membership corporation working on behalf of motorists, who can map a route, find local gas prices and electric vehicle charging stations, discover discounts, book a hotel, and track their roadside assistance service with the AAA Mobile app (AAA.com/mobile) for iPhone, iPad and Android.  For more information on joining or renewing a Membership, visit www.AAA.com.