Playing the President: How Putin can Win the War in Ukraine

The difference between President Putin and President Trump is clear. The Russian president does not mind killing people at all, including countless Russians. President Trump does.

To many, Trump’s policies are very cruel to human beings, but I believe this is more out of indifference or a lack of understanding regarding how most Americans live. Putin, on the other hand, knows exactly how common people live. He was a taxi driver after the fall of the USSR.

Putin and many Russian people are reading Trump’s blunt message to Russia as a clear sign of weakness. When Trump says that he does not want people killed, what Putin hears is “The United States of America is weak and vulnerable. The United States is scared of Russia.”

This is why Mr. Putin has been so aggressive, taking advantage of the Israeli-Iran conflict, of Western distraction, to pummel Ukraine. Just as Mr. Trump has been accused by investors as being TACO, always caving in to the other guy, he is proving to be a paper tiger, a pushover, in foreign policy.

If you read my past commentary, one of the criticisms I had of former President Biden was his inability to be consistent, stable, and tough on foreign policy. His weakness gave a green light for Putin to invade Ukraine by taking U.S. military action off the table. Putin saw Biden as weak. The sudden withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan was nothing short of a panic and a disaster. The United States is faltering, while China, in particular, will take the lead in the coming years, in large part, because U.S. greed for profit led our big companies like Apple, Google, and many others to sell U.S. technology to the Chinese military since many companies in China are affiliated with the Chinese government. In many ways, the greed of American investors not only built the Chinese economy, it created the current Chinese military machine.

Yet, all these years we worried about North Korea? Hmm.

Mr. Trump has also proven to be very weak and scared in foreign policy. He has brutalized the Ukrainians largely because he is mad at the Biden-Ukrainian issue with Hunter Biden. He may not try to kill people, but he is letting Putin murder thousands, including kids, because of his personal dislike of President Zelensky. Ukraine can be a very important strategic partner to the United States, or it can become Russian. President Trump, though, jumps back and forth, and though he may say such is his strength, Putin sees it as America’s greatest weakness. Regretfully, I think Mr. Putin is right.

Putin sees through it. Trump is erratic, but one thing is consistent. Flattering Mr. Trump, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shamelessly did, is exactly how to get what one wants.

All Mr. Putin has to do is call up Mr. Trump and say, “Gee, after you said what you did, I realized that you are right. I have been insincere to you. You, sir, are a great man, and you deserve that Nobel Peace Prize. I want you to have that, so I will agree to a full ceasefire for six months.”

This will be hailed as a great success! The Russians can rearm, and though the Ukrainians get a break, they will only be able to rearm less than the Russians.

Mr. Trump will get his Peace Prize because such is a great achievement. As soon as Mr. Trump gets that prize, Mr. Putin can order an all-out assault on Ukraine, but simply stage a skit, dress Russians up like Ukrainian soldiers, and say the Ukrainians were jealous of Mr. Trump’s prize and attacked Russians. This will win back MAGA hearts at home, and Trump can forget all about Ukraine.

Since Mr. Trump got what he wanted, he will care less, stop giving weapons to Ukraine, and forget Ukraine exists. The Europeans cannot get their act together since World War I when it comes to defense. Ukraine will lose. Trump wins and Putin wins. Putin can then move on to taking out the weaker NATO countries; Trump’s shrug is America’s blessing to Putin to do what he wants. If Mr. Trump fails to get that prize, then the rejection will further fuel his hate for Europe.  The world will get a similar result.

Either way, the free world, the democratic world, loses. The new Dark Ages begin.

Now, there is a fly in my presumptuous Putin-directed ointment. This does not seem to be what Mr. Putin is doing. Part of this may be due to Mr. Putin’s expertise in knowing people’s psychology. If true, he is spot on. Trump is a coward. America is weak, as the Europeans are, and Russia will hang on and win. You don’t have to like Mr. Putin, but he is one tough and brutal person. He always wins, even if it appears that he is losing.

But Mr. Putin’s problem is that he thinks like a Russian; therefore, he sees the United States from a Russian cultural perspective, through a tough upper lip and fatalistic beliefs. This is what makes Russians so difficult to fight. They are tough, and if they die, oh, well.

What if Mr. Putin is wrong? Powerful men are still human. Putin’s brazen attacks on Ukraine can make his fellow Russians more nationalistic and put him in good favor with the Russian people, “We are kicking the West’s butt.” However, what if Trump has a limit? Mr. Putin is taking a serious risk in his attempt to humiliate President Trump.  Mr. Trump is erratic, and if he is not erratic, then he is brilliant. The world has no idea, yet.

There would be little stopping the American President from fully supporting continued armament of Ukraine or even using U.S. bombers to knock out Russian positions in Ukraine. The U.S. military is far superior than Russia’s. The Russian air force is struggling against Ukraine’s handful of outdated American and Russian jets. Though Ukraine does not even have one battleship, the Russian Navy has proven totally helpless against the Ukrainian Navy.

The point is that no one knows what lengths President Trump will go if he feels humiliated by another powerful man. Trump could just walk away in disgust and say, “Oh, well, let Ukraine burn.” Or, Russia does not win in Ukraine because Ukraine finally has the support it needs. The Ukrainian army is a better army than Russia’s. They just need some help.

Still, the pessimist in me sees a Russian victory because Mr. Putin only cares about his mortality project, making the USSR great again, and Trump only cares about his make-believe perception of the world: Making America Great Again. It does not matter what the reality or truth is. It only matters what one believes. In that way, Putin and Trump are identical twins.