Oscars: Easy Pickings – maybe not

The best predictors have been considered as well as the recent awards circuit records, so trust me to give you the best advice before your Oscar party.  I will also throw in some of my favorite showings in each category that didn’t get their proper due.  Check out Eric Miller’s picks too to see where our picks line up and don’t.

Best Picture

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Should win: Gravity

Should have been nominated: See my Top 10 list!

It’s nothing groundbreaking, but 12 Years a Slave‘s thematic material and strong ensemble will provide its victory.  Gravity shows much more innovation and gives the most competition, although American Hustle is the dark horse.

Best Leading Actor

Will win: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Should win: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Should have been nominated: Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips, Toni Servillo for The Great Beauty, Tye Sheridan for Mud

If anyone will make an upset, it will be Chiwetel Ejiofor for his emotionally honest performance in 12 Years a Slave.  But McConaughey’s awards record this year speaks for itself.

Best Leading Actress

Will win: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Should win: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Should have been nominated: Adèle Exarchopoulos for Blue Is the Warmest Color, Brie Larson for Short Term 12, Amy Seimetz for Upstream Color, Shailene Woodley for The Spectacular Now

The easiest prediction, as Blanchett has next to no competition.  Although Amy Adams has shown a strong (I think unearned) surge recently for American Hustle, it won’t be enough.

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

Should win: Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips

Should have been nominated: Stephen Dorff for The Motel Life, Matthew McConaughey for Mud, Ray McKinnon for Mud, Josh Radnor for Afternoon Delight

I don’t like it, but Mr. Miller is right.  What I found a mostly overrated performance from Leto will win him this one.  Abdi’s understated, well-calibrated intensity was miles more impressive.  He will at least give Leto a run for his money.

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle

Should win: Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave

Should have been nominated: Margo Martindale for August: Osage County, Julianne Moore for Don Jon, Sarah Paulson for Mud, Amy Seimetz for Pit Stop, Léa Seydoux for Blue Is the Warmest Color

The closest race of the night by far.  Normally I would agree with Mr. Miller’s pick.  But Lawrence’s undeniable star power will likely give her the edge, despite Nyong’o giving the more impressive performance.

Best Director

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

Should win: Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity

Should have been nominated: Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips, James Ponsoldt for The Spectacular Now, Shane Carruth for Upstream Color

The near indescribable work Cuarón put into his film is enough for him to win this award.  David O. Russell is a strong contender, but doesn’t have the technical achievements to back a vote for him.

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Her

Should win: Her

Should have been nominated: Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis

Another close one, but Spike Jonze’s organic dialogue and insightful message will prevail over the complexity of American Hustle.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Should win: The Wolf of Wall Street

Should have been nominated: Blue Is the Warmest Color, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Shadow Dancer, Short Term 12, The Spectacular Now

12 Years a Slave will win.  Repeat after me.  12 Years a Slave will win.

Best Animated Feature

Will win: Frozen

Should win: Frozen

Should have been nominated: Monsters University

Will Hayao Miyazaki’s swan song picture The Wind Rises win him a second Oscar?  Doubtful, because of the impressive return to form Disney has shown with Frozen.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will win: The Great Beauty

Should win: The Great Beauty

Should have been nominated: Blue Is the Warmest Color, The Past, Una Noche

The biggest competition (Blue is the Warmest Color, The Past, and Wadjda) was knocked out by technicalities or didn’t even make the nomination cut.  Fortunately The Great Beauty will prove a worthy victor nonetheless.

Best Documentary Feature

Will win: The Act of Killing

Should win: The Act of Killing

Should have been nominated: Gideon’s Army, Stories We Tell

The Act of Killing is one of the most original, daring documentaries in recent years and will take the win in a close race with the more tame 20 Feet from Stardom.

Best Production Design

Will win: The Great Gatsby

Should win: Her

Should have been nominated: The Great Beauty

Best Cinematography

Will win: Gravity

Should win: Gravity

Should have been nominated: The Great Beauty, Upstream Color

Best Costume Design

Will win: The Great Gatsby

Should win: American Hustle

Should have been nominated: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Populaire

Best Film Editing

Will win: Gravity

Should win: Gravity

Should have been nominated: Frances Ha, Side Effects, Upstream Color

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: Dallas Buyers Club

Should win: Dallas Buyers Club

Should have been nominated: American Hustle, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Star Trek Into Darkness

Best Original Score

Will win: Gravity

Should win: Gravity

Should have been nominated: The Motel Life, Side Effects, Upstream Color

Best Original Song

Will win: “Let It Go” from Frozen

Should win: “Let It Go” from Frozen

Should have been nominated: “Atlas” from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Best Sound Editing

Will win: Gravity

Should win: Gravity

Should have been nominated: Pacific Rim, Rush

Best Sound Mixing

Will win: Gravity

Should win: Gravity

Should have been nominated: All Is Lost, Rush, Upstream Color

Best Visual Effects

Will win: Gravity

Should win: Gravity

Should have been nominated: Pacific Rim, World War Z

Best Animated Short Film

Will win: Get a Horse!

Should win: Mr. Hublot

Should have been nominated: A la française, The Blue Umbrella

Best Live Action Short Film

Will win: The Voorman Problem

Should win: Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)

Should have been nominated: Aningaaq

Best Documentary Short

Will win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Should win: no choices

Should have been nominated: no choices