How likely is another government shutdown at the end of January?

The 43-day government shutdown that ended just three weeks ago was the longest in U.S. history. It caused a world of hurt to federal employees who temporarily went without paychecks and airline passengers who experienced frequent flight delays and cancellations.

The legislation that ended the shutdown was signed into law on Nov. 12 by President Donald Trump. It funds most government agencies through Jan. 30, 2026, and some programs for the next fiscal year-which runs through Sep. 30, 2026.

The legislation does not address soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies-which help many lower-income Americans pay for health insurance-and is believed to be the very issue that led to the shutdown in the first place.

Senate Republicans have promised Democrats a vote on the subsidies in the near future. But the issue again has the potential to become explosive, as several GOP lawmakers in both chambers have signaled they are opposed to an extension of the subsidies.

Failure to renew the subsidies would lead to a substantial spike in premiums for an estimated 20 million ACA policyholders, making their health plans basically unaffordable. The subsidies are set to expire on Dec. 31 absent congressional action.

Congress has passed three of the 12 annual appropriations bills that fund the government. But earlier this week, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said he is not sure if the upper chamber can pass the remainder of the bills this month, as doing so in an expeditious manner would require unanimous consent from all 100 senators.

So, if any senator objects, which is almost all but certain-it could be quite a time-consuming process-bleeding ever closer to the January 30 deadline. Lawmakers will be away from Washington, D.C., from Dec. 22 to Dec. 31 for the winter recess.

Some of the remaining bills deal with funding for the military, health care, and education.

Congress is arguably more partisan and more polarized than at any time in recent memory.

And, if the past is prologue, another shutdown is not out of the question at the beginning of the new year.

How likely is such an event?

Will lawmakers have to pass a stopgap measure to fund the government, or will the appropriations process continue to progress?

Baltimore Post-Examiner spoke with several former members of Congress to get their opinions on the matter.

“I am confident that significant progress will be made by the end of January,” said Gregg Harper, a Mississippi Republican, who served from 2009-19.

“The Appropriations Committees want to do the job,” he said. “No one really benefited from the long shutdown led by the Senate Democrats, and I would expect things to go more smoothly this time. Hopefully, they can agree on top-line numbers very soon. Look for another minibus with a CR to take care of anything remaining at the end of January.”

“There probably will not be another shutdown, because the Democrats have not figured out their end-game,” said Alan Grayson, a Florida Democrat, who served from 2009-17.

“When the Democrats saw that Republicans were willing to let 40+million Americans go hungry, they gave up,” he said. “The Republicans have a very, very high pain threshold, as long as it’s someone else’s pain. This is what sadistic government looks like.”

Pennsylvania Democrat, Jason Altmire, who served from 2007-13, said another shutdown is possible.

“These funding deadlines have become a partisan arsenal for the congressional minority.”

“Democrats are now doing what Republicans did when they were in the minority, holding up necessary funding bills to score political points,” he said. “It’s hard to envision a scenario where this won’t happen again, especially since Sen. Schumer was so roundly criticized by his party after waving the white flag twice before.”

Steve Israel, a New York Democrat, who served from 2001 to 2017, said another government shutdown might hurt Republicans’ midterm election chances.

“Congressional Republicans are heading into a very rough midterm election environment. Another shutdown based on their unwillingness to make health care more affordable would make it a Category 4 hurricane. Every week that brings us closer to the election puts more pressure on Republicans to resolve these issues, with or without President Trump.”

Looking ahead 

Republicans head into the election year with a six-seat advantage in both chambers.

But their narrow majority could very well come under threat as midterm elections tend to favor the party that is out of power.

Also, President Trump’s approval rating is extremely low-36%, according to a recent Gallup poll.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said on the cable network on Tuesday that Trump’s approval rating is now lower than that of any past president other than Richard Nixon’s at the same point in their respective presidencies.

“Anywhere you look, this is the second worst for a president of either party at this point in their second term, dating all the way back since the 1940s.”

Enten also said that Republicans could get slaughtered in the midterms if Trump’s approval rating does not significantly improve.

“If he does not see a rise of more than five points: ‘See you later’ to that Republican majority.”

Bryan Renbaum

Bryan is an award-winning political journalist who has extensive experience covering Congress and Maryland state government. His work includes coverage of the election of Donald Trump, the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and attorneys general William Barr and Jeff Sessions-as well as that of the Maryland General Assembly, Gov. Larry Hogan, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bryan has broken stories involving athletic and sexual assault scandals with the Baltimore Post-Examiner.

His original UMBC investigation gained international attention, was featured in People Magazine and he was interviewed by ABC’s “Good Morning America” and local radio stations. Bryan broke subsequent stories documenting UMBC’s omission of a sexual assault on their daily crime log and a federal investigation related to the university’s handling of an alleged sexual assault.