China Extends String of Pearls to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean – Part II

CNN’s Beijing Bureau Chief, Steven Jiang, claims that China, disguised as a peacemaker and unifier, is emerging as a credible global security option. Following the same line, David Ignatius of the Washington Post quotes Kissinger as saying that China’s rise changes the terms of international relations. However, Ahmed Aboudouh of the Atlantic Council believes that to serve as a transregional sentinel, China should adopt a sophisticated security-focused strategy rather than its current economic-heavy one.

China appears to have already made that shift by expanding and modernizing its naval fleet for blue-water naval competition. China’s rapid technological advancement poses a significant threat to submarine operations, challenging American superiority in oceanic warfare.

In his March 2023 article for the US Naval Institute, Mike Sweeney asserts that submarines, not aircraft carriers, will emerge as capital ships in future naval warfare. According to the Wall Street Journal, China is now operating larger-hulled nuclear-powered attack submarines with pump-jet propulsion systems, seabed sensor networks, and noise-reduction technology that was previously only found on the most advanced US submarine. China now employs a marine sensor network known as the Underwater Great Wall, and its patrol planes and helicopters can now collect sonar data, enhancing enemy submarine detection performance.

In September 2023, Asia Times reported that China has developed a game-changing terahertz-based submarine detection technology to challenge US naval operations. Beijing and Moscow are also working together to develop the Type 096 nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), which is expected to be operational within a decade. Type 096’s improved sensor and stealth capabilities reduce the enemy’s ability to monitor and track Chinese submarines, putting US strategic superiority at risk.

However, John Pinna, President of Trans-global Enterprise, believes that the rapidly changing international political environment, China’s slowing economic growth, and internal conflicts limit significant resource allocation to keep up the pace of technological modernization and military expansion. Opposition from other naval powers, as well as international maritime laws, is a significant barrier to China achieving blue water naval dominance.

The global shift toward cleaner energy resources has made LNG the most popular marine fuel for international maritime transportation. China is a consumer powerhouse with the world’s second-largest population. Slower GDP growth creates greater challenges in maintaining not only domestic energy consumption but also investments in costly LNG vessels to manage fuel transportation and storage, thereby limiting naval infrastructure expansion and the prolonged deployment of carriers, submarines and destroyers.

The alternative to lack of blue water naval force, according to Pinna, is to increase brown and green water operational capacity through coastal bases and outposts in partner countries. This broadens the scope and performance of naval aviation and addresses the fundamental logistics of refueling, repairs, and resupply. It helps to advance naval research and development and manufacturing partnerships, strengthening China’s global alliance.

Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Pakistan, among others, remain critical in assisting China in expanding its brown and green water operational capacity outside of the Pacific Oceanic Region. Sri Lanka and the Maldives are frequently caught up in a tug-of-war between India and China because both rely heavily on India for economic stability.

China had not finished celebrating SINOPEC’s permit to build a new petroleum refinery in Hambantota when it learned that Sri Lanka, under Indian pressure, had imposed a one-year ban on Chinese spy vessels operating in its waters. In August 2022, Sri Lanka made a similar decision, turning away a Chinese satellite tracking vessel. David Brewster of The Interpreter assesses that fear of the China debt trap haunts Maldivians, and despite the recent victory of a pro-China regime, the Maldives will most likely be forced to maintain a middle-ground approach.

Compared to these satellites, Pakistan emerges as a favored location for the PLA’s military logistical base and a durable anchor for interventions in the Indian Ocean.

Pakistan has the world’s fifth-largest population and sixth-largest military. Pakistan’s economy is significantly large, making it a leading candidate for China’s technology and merchandise dump. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could be a formidable threat to China’s adversaries and unlike Iran; Pakistan is not under threat of sanctions in the near future. Pakistan’s military establishment resists global pressures to safeguard China’s interests, and a change in regime in Islamabad is less likely to alter Pakistan’s loyalty to China.

Pakistani rulers readily accept the Communist Party’s terms of engagement and allow Chinese nationals to operate freely within the country. Consistent polls show that the vast majority of Pakistan’s 240 million people regard China as the country’s primary ally. Pakistan strongly supports the one-China policy, regards Taiwan as an inalienable part of China, and defends China’s transgressions in the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Xizang.

In April 2023, General Zhang Youxia, China’s Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, met with General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s military chief. Given the changing international political climate, General Zhang emphasized that Pakistan remained China’s top priority. He stated that China was fully committed to Pakistan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and developmental requirements. In response, General Asim Munir stated that despite foreign pressure, Pakistan would continue its support to China’s core interests in Taiwan, Xinjiang, and the South China Sea.

Pakistan, unlike Sri Lanka or the Maldives, shares a border with China, and Gilgit’s land bridge facilitates travel from Xinjiang to Iran and Balochistan. China is drawn to Pakistan’s strategic location, which is equidistant from both the African and Pacific Oceanic rims. Pakistan’s ports are just a stone’s throw from the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.

Over 80% of Chinese oil, gas, and metal imports travel through the Malacca Strait, making them vulnerable to US surveillance and interference. Controlling Gwadar port in Pakistan would enable China to claim a Malacca Strait bypass and transport cargo to Central China’s industrial hubs via Gilgit. Travel time between Gwadar and Central China via Gilgit is four days, whereas ships take nearly 32 days to travel the same distance via the Malacca Strait.

Managing Pakistan’s commercial ports also allows China to maneuver shipments to Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics, broadening its strategic horizons. China is currently working on constructing a naval base in Pakistan that could be linked to military outposts in the Red Sea, bolstering strategic leverage along the African coastline and in the Mediterranean.

China is frequently accused of violating human rights in Muslim-majority Xinjiang. Pakistan’s support, the world’s second-largest Muslim country, counteracts this criticism and gives China legitimacy as a friend and well-wisher of global Muslims. Pakistan’s assistance also provides China with the ability and opportunity to penetrate Arab countries and influence Arab leadership at the expense of American interests. The Digital Forensics Research and Analytics Center indicates in its 2023 publication titled ‘Narrative Craftsmanship: China’s Strategic Influence on Pakistani Media Circles’ that Pakistani media is faithful to China and whitewashes Uyghur, Kazakh, and Hui genocides.

Pakistan, unlike other Sino-partners, is a staunch opponent of China’s main rival, India. For decades, China has successfully used Pakistan to divert India’s resources away from deeper engagement in Xinjiang and Xizang. China now wants Pakistan to counterbalance Indian interests in the Persian Gulf. Just a few days ago in December 2023, China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, accused India of undermining the CPEC by supporting terrorism in Balochistan.

Pakistan’s interests coincide with those of China, as both want Persians and Arabs to abandon India. Pakistan is making a concerted effort to link Kashmir and Palestinian issues. China sees it as advantageous because it brings together anti-India and anti-Western forces. The Islamists, communists and Woke have sought refuge in political deadlocks such as Kashmir and Palestine, using them as anchors to galvanize the supporters.

Hence, it is not surprising that both China and Pakistan are parroting identical narratives about the Gaza conflict. In October 2023, General Asim Munir met with Ahmad Jawad Rabei, the Palestinian ambassador to Pakistan to call for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza. As expected, he not only failed to condemn Arabs’ willful and indiscriminate anti-Semitism, but also ignored the Palestinians’ refusal to release all Israeli hostages. Furthermore, he justified the October 7 massacre of innocent Jews by claiming that the violence was in response to state-sponsored sacrilege at the Al Aqsa mosque. He argued that equating Hamas’ actions with terrorism was naive and viewing the issue as an isolated attack obscured the chronic dispute.

Pakistan is the third-largest recipient of Chinese funds, after Russia and Venezuela. Given Pakistan’s reliance on international lending, a large portion of Chinese financing to Pakistan is used to roll the debt rather than to fund new initiatives. According to Aid-Data, Chinese rescue lending to Pakistan has surpassed $28 billion, which is the highest in the world and accounts for more than 23% of Pakistan’s total national debt.

With Chinese backing, Pakistan hopes to join the BRICS at the upcoming 2024 Kazan summit. Analysts believe that joining the BRICS will give Pakistan access to capital from the New Development Bank (NDB) and help discharge China-led megaprojects.

During his 2023 visit to Pakistan, General Zhang expressed strong interest in a rail connection between Gwadar and Kashgar via Gilgit. Gilgit is the gateway to the $64 billion CPEC project, which aims to cement relations between the two countries through roads, railways, fiber-optic communications, and oil and gas pipelines. The South China Morning Post claims the proposed rail project is the most expensive BRI transportation infrastructure, costing over $57 billion. According to the China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group, the project will help China fulfill anxiously awaited strategic dreams.

During a recent visit to Islamabad, representatives from the Chinese Geological Survey, the TANG International Education Group, and the Yunnan Land and Resources Vocational College expressed a strong desire to map mineral and metal resources in Gilgit-Baltistan for further development. With Pakistan’s encouragement, Chinese companies continue to plunder marine resources in the Arabian Sea. Soon, Chinese companies intend to conduct seabed mining along Pakistan’s 650-mile coastline. Locals believe that the new high-speed rail line will accelerate the unwarranted transfer of raw materials from Pakistan to China.

Any large-scale military deployment in the Indian Ocean would necessitate significant changes to China’s strategy, with Pakistan playing a key role in this transformation. During the Zhang-Munir meeting, General Zhang expressed a desire to strengthen and elevate military-to-military relations through increased practical military cooperation. Zhang emphasized the importance of safeguarding common strategic interests to achieve regional stability. General Munir responded by expressing a willingness to strengthen strategic communication in order to address security challenges.

The deepening of India-US collaboration and the emergence of QUAD bears heavily on the minds of both Pakistan and China. China believes that training Pakistani military personnel and modernizing its military equipment will help it kill two birds with one stone. First, this increases Pakistan’s offensive capability against India. Second, this helps prepare Pakistan as a surrogate to counter the US in the Indian Ocean.

According to the US Department of Defense’s 2023 report, the PLA trained Pakistani military personnel and assisted them in pursuing professional opportunities when they attended the third International Army Forum on Military Education in November 2022. Since 2002, the PLA’s special operations forces and the police have participated in counter-terrorism training exercises with Belarus, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan.

According to the Global Times, Pakistan joined the Sea Guardian Maritime Drill in November 2023 to assess joint operational capabilities. Both nations’ warships took part in anti-submarine operations in the Arabian Sea’s waters and airspace. The contingent consisted of destroyers, frigates, submarines, oil tankers, and rescue ships. Furthermore, Pakistan’s naval fleet trained alongside the Chinese Navy Marine Corps (PLANMC) stationed in Djibouti, which supports China’s trade interests and military diplomacy in the Red Sea.

Pakistan is a member of the China-led Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO), which manages a network of space surveillance telescopes and tasking information and assists the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ National Astronomical Observatory in processing the data. According to the organization’s website, it helps partners enhance optical system capabilities, scope, redundancy, and data-sharing networks. The PLA’s strategic support force (SSF), which uses Yuan-wang space support ships for tracking satellite and ICBM launches, currently manages tracking, telemetry, and command stations in Pakistan and Kenya.

Colonel Akbar Hussain and Major Adil Raja, two retired Pakistani military officers, claim that China has complete control over Pakistan’s strategic assets, including the warhead missile delivery system. Pakistan now uses China’s homegrown navigation system, BeiDou, for both military and civilian purposes.

China is a major supplier of naval ships to Pakistan. According to The Diplomat, between 2015 and 2018, Pakistan spent more than $5 billion on Chinese equipment, which included eight Yuan-class submarines and four frigates.

The Print reported in July 2013 that Burma, Iraq, and Nigeria had placed orders for JF-17 Thunder aircraft produced jointly by China and Pakistan. Pakistan’s air force currently operates a fleet of 150 JF-17s. Pakistan has also acquired Chengdu J-10 multirole combat aircraft and strike-capable Caihong and Wing Loong unmanned aerial vehicles from China.

In January 2024, Aviation Week reported that Pakistan would purchase an unknown number of Chinese Shenyang FC-31 Gyrfalcon fifth-generation stealth fighters and 25 Rafale Challenger J-10C Firebirds, also known as the Dragon from the East. The FC-31 will most likely replace the American F-16s.

In November 2023, China-Arms reported that Pakistan would acquire the Hongdu L-15 light attack aircraft to replace its aging F-7PG fighter fleet. The L-15 can carry a wide range of weapons, such as HJ-10 anti-tank guided missiles, PL-12 long-range air-to-air missiles, PL-10 infrared-guided short-range missiles, the LS series of laser- and satellite-guided bombs, and anti-aircraft guns. The L-15 also comes with several advanced Chinese sensors, including multi-mode targeting pods and electronic jammers.

Concerned about illegal military activity, the United States sanctioned three Chinese companies in November 2023 for supplying Pakistan with ballistic missile technology and components. The sanction comes just days after Pakistan launched the China-assisted Ababeel ballistic missile system. The National Interest dubbed Ababeel the ultimate nuclear missile, claiming it could be used to destroy India’s nuclear arsenal.

This sanctioning process for Chinese entities should be broadened to include non-military sectors to discourage Pakistani businesses from investing in Xinjiang. The United States should sanction companies that use forced labor to manufacture products in Xinjiang and Tibet and ship them to Pakistan via Gilgit or Arabian seaports.

China’s obsession with strategic expansion for global dominance is wiping out natural resources, cultural identities, and native communities. The relentless intrusions in Xinjiang, Tibet, Balochistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan have resulted in widespread abductions, assaults, demographic shifts, and genocides. Pakistani and Chinese rulers have amassed capital and military power by abusing natural resources and building large dams, industrial units, and ports on lands once owned by Gilgitis, Baloch, Uyghurs, Tibetans, and Zhuang.

Those who speak out for local land rights and oppose Chinese excesses face prolonged torture in unknown locations. Many activists are not as fortunate, and return mutilated and dead. China and its allies should face sanctions for such transgressions.

Gilgit, China’s only land bridge to Pakistan is designated as disputed territory by the United Nations. UN Military Observers stationed in Gilgit should have the authority to prevent China from using the territory for military or strategic objectives. The international community should ensure the transparency of Chinese investments in Pakistan and discourage China from occupying farmland and pastures in Gilgit, as this devastates the local ecosystem and livelihoods. China’s stormy ascent is a warning that good deeds, when done incorrectly or excessively, turn evil.