The Field Is Set: Breaking Down the 2025 Preakness Contenders and Dark Horses

As of May 10, 2025, the Preakness Stakes is just one week away, and anticipation is building. While the final field is still taking shape, early insights into the potential lineup offer a chance to evaluate how the odds might look if the race were held today.

Already, key developments have reshaped the race landscape, most notably the withdrawals of Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and fellow contender Rodriguez. Sovereignty, who claimed the Derby by 1½ lengths over Journalism, is reportedly bypassing the Preakness to prepare for the Belmont Stakes.

With Sovereignty out, the race dynamics shift significantly, opening the door for other top contenders to seize the spotlight.

The Morning Line Favorite

With Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty out, the landscape of the Preakness Stakes has notably changed, positioning Kentucky Derby runner-up Derby favorite Journalism as the current favorite in the early odds. In early Preakness betting odds, Journalism is listed at 6-5 according to projections. He is trained by Michael McCarthy and is currently rated 7.86.

Despite his position at the top of the projected odds, Journalism’s status for the Preakness is listed as “Possible”. His manager and owners’ decision whether to start is a significant point of interest for Preakness race officials (to put it mildly). If Journalism were not to make an appearance, it would open the door for other horses to become favorites.

Derby Performance

Journalism delivered a gritty performance in the Kentucky Derby, finishing second in the opening leg of the Triple Crown. Midway through the race, both Journalism and eventual winner Sovereignty were trailing significantly—13½ lengths behind pacesetter Citizen Bull on the backstretch.

The two contenders began to close the gap, advancing steadily through the field. As they approached the final turn, both swung wide and launched their bids. They battled down the homestretch, but in the final furlong, Sovereignty edged ahead, pulling away to claim a 1½-length victory over Journalism.

Proven Record and Pedigree

Journalism brings a strong record into consideration for the Preakness. He has won four of his last five starts and boasts a perfect record of never finishing worse than third in his career races. This consistent performance underscores his quality.

He is the son of Curlin, a notable racehorse who won 11 out of his 16 career starts and also never finished worse than fourth. Curlin himself was a winner of the Preakness Stakes in 2007, a victory Journalism will aim to emulate at Pimlico.

Leading Contenders and Challengers

Beyond the projected favorite, a few other horses stand out as primary challengers in the early line. Goal Oriented is expected to attract significant betting attention, partly due to his undefeated record in two starts. He is trained by Bob Baffert, who is aiming for his ninth Preakness victory. Goal Oriented’s early projected odds are 5-1, and his status is listed as Probable.

Sandman is another prominent name on the early odds board, positioned as the second favorite at 7-2. River Thames, trained by Todd Pletcher, has also caught the eye of bettors. His recent form includes a narrow second-place finish to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a strong third in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). River Thames is projected at 8-1 odds and is listed as Probable.

The Next Tier of Hopefuls

Following the top projected contenders is a group of horses clustered in the 6-1 to 10-1 odds range, offering potential value. This group, according to early analysis, includes Clever Again, American Promise, and Gosger.

Clever Again is projected to be 8-1 and is listed as Probable. He has impressed in his limited career, winning two of three starts. American Promise enters the picture with 10-1 odds and is Probable. His last outing was a 16th-place finish in the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1). Gosger has early projected odds of 15-1 and is listed as Possible. His most recent start resulted in a victory in the 2025 Lexington Stakes (G3).

Clever Again’s Notable Connections

Clever Again possesses notable connections within the horse racing world, with previous success at the Preakness Stakes. He is trained by Steve Asmussen, who has won the Preakness Stakes twice (2007, 2009).

He is teamed with jockey Jose Ortiz, a Preakness winner in 2022. Furthermore, Clever Again is sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, adding a strong pedigree element to his profile. His win in the Hot Springs Stakes on March 30 was by four lengths, leading wire-to-wire.

American Promise’s Recent Run

American Promise is included among the probable starters for the Preakness. His most recent competitive outing was in the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1). In the Derby, American Promise finished 16th. He is sired by Justify and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas. Despite the Kentucky Derby result, he is projected to be in the mid-range odds tier for the Preakness.

Potential Longer Shots

Among the projected contenders are several longshots—horses listed at higher odds that could offer strong value. Heart of Honor and Pay Billy both enter with early odds of 30-1.

Heart of Honor, listed as Probable, is coming off a runner-up finish in the 2025 UAE Derby (G2). Pay Billy, also listed as Probable, earned his spot in the Preakness field with a victory in the 2025 Federico Tesio Stakes.

Renowned racing analyst Jody Demling, known for accurately predicting Triple Crown outcomes, has hinted that he’s high on a “huge longshot”—a horse he believes could make an impact and add value to exotic betting tickets.

The Field is Still Forming

It is important to remember that the 2025 Preakness Stakes field is not yet fully set. Trainers continue to evaluate their horses before entries are taken on Monday. The uncertain status of the current favorite, Journalism, listed as “Possible,” creates a significant element of fluidity. Should Journalism ultimately not run, it could potentially pave the way for other horses, such as Captain Cook and Hill Road, who were prominent favorites in the Peter Pan Stakes, to enter the Preakness and become leading contenders.