Can Biden win re-election if he loses any of the three key Rust Belt states?
Pundits generally agree that the outcome of the 2024 presidential election likely will hinge on the outcome of the votes in seven battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina.
President Joe Biden won all of those states except North Carolina in 2020. Donald Trump won all of them except Nevada in 2016.
With recent polls showing Trump leading Biden in most or all of the battleground states, the president’s re-election prospects appear to be very much in doubt.
It matters naught that polls show both candidates about tied nationally, as the electoral college, not the popular vote, ultimately will determine who wins the election.
Biden does not have to win all or even most the battleground states to win a second term.
But it is considered more than possible that any single defection among the three key battleground states in what Democrats call the “Blue wall:” Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could be fatal to Biden’s re-election chances.
Those three states together make up 44 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, but they are crucial bellwether states, as the winner of every presidential contest since 2008 has carried all of them.
To make matters worse for Biden, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling at nearly 11%. That means the distribution of a few thousand votes in a few key states could very well decide the outcome of what is already expected to be a close election.
Polls show Kennedy hurts Biden’s chances more than Trump’s.
Not since Ross Perot took nearly 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 presidential election has an independent candidate been poised to be such a spoiler as Kennedy might prove to be.
The margin for error is small.
So where does Biden stand?
“If we use 2020 as a baseline, Biden had 306 Electoral Votes, which was 36 more than he needed. So, mathematically, he could lose Michigan and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win. But that’s assuming that he can count on holding Georgia (16), Arizona (11), and Nevada (6). In reality, Wisconsin is likely the only “optional” Rust Belt state,” Todd Eberly, a professor of political science at St. Mary’s College of Maryland told the Baltimore Post-Examiner.
Jack Fruchtman, a professor emeritus of political science at Towson University, disagreed, saying Biden must carry all three states if he is to win re-election.
“Yes…if he’s to be successful in staying in office for another term. But it’s still early and polls can change and they’ve also been wrong.”
Former Rep. Ron Klink, a Pennsylvania Democrat, who served in Congress from 1993-01, agreed with Fruchtman about the timing of the polls.
“Hillary Clinton and Michael Dukakis could both tell you that whoever is leading in the spring doesn’t matter. These polls will shift. There is usually an October surprise or sometimes a September surprise.”
However, Klink said Biden can afford to lose Michigan if he makes up for it by carrying North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes.
North Carolina has gone Republican in every presidential election since 2012. But the state has become more purple in recent years and has a Democratic governor, Roy Cooper. Cooper will leave office next year after having served two terms.
Klink said Democrats have a good chance of recapturing the governor’s mansion and that this in turn could give Biden momentum in the state. Klink said he believes this because the Republicans nominated an outspoken and staunch Trump supporter in Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, whereas Democrats nominated a more moderate candidate in state Attorney General Josh Stein.
North Carolina is one of 17 states where the lieutenant governor is elected separately from the governor, thus increasing the potential for officials from different parties to serve in those offices.
“He (Robinson) is Trump on steroids. I think he’ll drive away a lot of people that would be traditional Republican voters…North Carolina is very much a purple state. It can go either way.”
Klink said he is “very confident” Biden will carry Pennsylvania and possibly Wisconsin as well.
Klink said Biden might have “more of a challenge” in Michigan due to feelings of ill-will harbored by many in the state’s sizable Arab-American community, who feel that the president’s strong support for Israel in its recent conflict with Hamas represents a betrayal of their strong support for him in 2020.
How might RFK Jr.’s candidacy affect the outcome of the election?
“Folks who don’t follow politics are likely to be drawn to RFK Jr. because of his name and family,” Eberly said. “Those folks are more likely to vote Biden. But folks who pay attention to politics and know the issues associated with the candidates are going to know RFK Jr.’s anti-vax status and his tendency toward conspiracy theories. So those folks voting for him are more likely to come from the Trump camp.”
“I think RFK Jr. will fade,” Fruchtman said. “But his candidacy may also hurt Trump with anti-Trump Republicans.”
Why is Biden trailing behind in the Rust Belt?
“I think the name of the region says it all,” Eberly said. “These are former industrial states that have experienced tremendous economic upheaval as a result of global competition. Inflation is still higher than preferred. Interest rates are high. So even though the economy is growing, unemployment is down, and wage growth is solid, folks are faced daily with reminders of higher prices and higher costs. Rightly or wrongly, incumbent presidents bear the brunt of economic discontent. Biden’s best hope on that front is that inflationary pressures declines and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates – and soon – these changes will affect voters’ perception of the economy.
Eberly said demographics also play a role in this scenario.
“We’re undergoing a political realignment with white, working-class voters becoming ever more loyal Republican voters and college-educated, suburban voters becoming ever more Democratic. In MI, PA, and WI a significant share of each state’s population is white, rural, working class, without a college degree. That used to advantage Democrats in those states. It has become a Republican advantage. But all three states also have growing college-educated, suburban populations. This advantages Democrats. So there’s a demographic balance shift taking place. At present, it makes the three states very “swingy.”
Fruchtman echoed similar thoughts about inflation.
“Inflation seems to be the driving force in the Rust Belt polling. Not the 3.2 percent we see in published research but the price of such things as gasoline and eggs. But again, it’s early and we’ll have to wait and see what inflation looks like as we draw closer to the election. And then judge the polling.”
Klink said Biden’s message on the economy has not yet gone into full swing.
“He’s (Biden) going to be able to talk to them about the job creation, and the recovery from COVID, and all of the things that he has achieved. But you don’t do all that necessarily in February, March, and April of an election year. I’m sure they (the Biden campaign) have a plan set up to do that.”
The economy has added nearly 15 million jobs since Biden took office in Jan. 2021. That comes down to about 400,000 new jobs each month — a number that not even President Bill Clinton’s administration could boast.
However, many of the jobs added under Biden’s watch were part of the post-pandemic recovery that was preceded by job losses in excess of about 20 million.
The Trump administration boasted a very strong job record before the 2020 pandemic.
In 2019, more than 160 million Americans were employed-marking a 50-year low in the unemployment rate.
Who would win if the election were held today?
The latest polls show Trump with a slight lead in North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.
Polls also show Trump with a slight lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a more comfortable lead in Michigan.
So, with Trump leading in all of the battleground states, it is likely the former president would win if the election were held today.
But a lot can happen between now and November.
In the end, the election will likely be a battle of margins, where the winner will be the candidate who is most successful at turning out their respective base of supporters.
Bryan is an award-winning political journalist who has extensive experience covering Congress and Maryland state government.
His work includes coverage of the election of Donald Trump, the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and attorneys general William Barr and Jeff Sessions-as well as that of the Maryland General Assembly, Gov. Larry Hogan, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bryan has broken stories involving athletic and sexual assault scandals with the Baltimore Post-Examiner.
His original UMBC investigation gained international attention, was featured in People Magazine and he was interviewed by ABC’s “Good Morning America” and local radio stations. Bryan broke subsequent stories documenting UMBC’s omission of a sexual assault on their daily crime log and a federal investigation related to the university’s handling of an alleged sexual assault.