Trump’s tariffs could cost the GOP control of Congress, political analysts say

President Donald Trump’s decision to impose the strictest tariff regime in a century on America’s closest trading partners could bring about economic devastation and could cause Republicans to lose control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections, according to political analysts.

“Trump and MAGA Republicans need to reverse the growing voter discontent. But it is impossible to see how they can turn it around given yesterday’s (Wednesday) actions on tariffs, which is tantamount to punishing Americans for the anti-trade policies of other nations,” Rick Tyler told Baltimore Post-Examiner.

“We don’t have to wonder about the results of the largest tax increase and wealth transfer from American taxpayers to government that will dramatically impact next year’s elections because it is like dropping a lead ball into the sea – it is going to sink to the bottom.”

Tyler, an MSNBC contributor and partner and co-founder of the consulting firm Foundry Strategies, said there were already warning signs for Trump and Republicans after the April 1st special elections.

During those elections, the GOP maintained control of two reliably red Florida seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, but the party lost a state Supreme Court race in the battleground state Wisconsin.

The race received national attention as informal White House adviser and Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his associates spent over $20 million to boost the Republican candidate in the race.

“Like all off-off year special elections results, both parties will unconvincingly offer either self-satisfying excuses or interpretations of world-altering significance,” Tyler said. “A more detached view shows that in all three races, voters moved away from and not toward Trump and his agenda. Trump knows this, which is why he is moving away from and not toward Elon Musk.”

Trump unveiled the tariffs at a late-afternoon news conference that was held at the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday, April 2.

The President was accompanied by his cabinet and dozens of members of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union.

UAW is still considered to be a crucial part of the Democratic Party’s base and the union endorsed Democrat Kamala Harris for president. Over the years there has been a growing disconnect between union bosses and rank and file members.

Trump has made strong inroads with white blue-collar workers and that is believed to have helped enable him to win the once-reliably Democratic swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Those states have been hit hard over the past few decades due to factories and jobs moving to other countries where labor is cheaper.

Trump said the 25% tariff on automobile imports- which he had announced a few days before the news conference- would be combined with a new 10% across the board tariff on almost all foreign products-and that that would help bring more manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and make American products more competitive abroad.

During his three campaigns for the White House, Trump consistently emphasized strong trade protectionist sentiments. And Trump has since the 1970s been a staunch critic of U.S. trade policy and a proponent of tariffs as a way of restoring trade imbalances.

Even still, market analysts and pundits were seemingly unprepared for the scope of the tariffs Trump imposed. Many presidents have implemented or approved tariffs. But none have done so on such a wide-ranging basis.

E.U. countries were hit with a 20% tariff. Vietnam was hit with a 46% tariff. Taiwan was hit with a 32% tariff. China, which Trump has long accused of engaging in unfair and deceptive trade practices, was hit with a 34% tariff. India was hit with a 26% tariff. Japan was hit with a 24% tariff. Israel, which recently removed all trade penalties on U.S goods, was hit with a 17% tariff.

Leaders of many of the countries targeted have said they are considering retaliatory tariffs.

The stock market plummeted on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 1,680 points. The NASDAQ fell 1,050 points. And the S&P 500 index fell 274 points. The sell-off came as the major indexes had just concluded their worst quarter since September 2022. The market has lost about $3 trillion since Wednesday’s tariff announcement.

Former Rep. Alan Grayson, a Florida Democrat, who served in Congress from 2009-17, said Trump’s tariffs might help Democrats retake Congress.

“Tariffs will raise the price of almost everything because even if the end-item is made here, the supplies and components may be imported. Unemployment may rise because both businesses and consumers will have to cut back on costs, and employee costs are the largest costs for businesses. This will hurt the “red states” more than the “blue states.” So higher prices, probably higher unemployment and a destroyed world reputation ought to underscore for midterm voters that Trump is a fool, an evil clown, and that he and all his enablers must be voted out.”

Might tariffs work? 

Rick Vatz, a professor emeritus of political persuasion who taught at Towson University, said Trump’s tariff policies should be assessed with an open mind as they have the potential to lead to trade practices that are more fair to American workers.

“The tariff situation is one of long-term vs. short-term outcomes, as the Democrats argue that the tariffs are irresponsible, and Republicans try to argue they are essential. In today’s polarized climate, few want to argue the truth: that many months or longer may be required to assess the beneficiality of tariffs and the negotiations surrounding them. I would like to believe that the Democrats, were they responsible governors, would not seize the opportunity to use self-fulfilling prophesy for partisan short-term gain and destroy what could be a longitudinally fairer and positive economic policy for America.”

Vatz said the special elections came with predictable results.

The results of the special elections are not unexpected. What was unanticipated was Elon Musk’s, in some ways a political naif, hyperbolic claim, per his spending over $20 million on the Wisconsin juridical contest, that the consequences of the race could affect “the entire destiny of humanity.” Just absurd and unpersuasive…The Florida results were underwhelming but significant for the Republicans, as is almost always the case for tories in non-election year elections. Republicans generally do not go en masse to the polls.”

Grayson pointed out that even though Democrats lost in Florida, they demonstrated increased momentum in those races.

“The GOP’s margins where cut roughly in half from where they were less than six months ago, in the same districts, from roughly 30 points down to 15 points. The switch seems to be attributable, in part, to higher minority turnout, which is understandable, given Trump’s de facto “White Power” agenda. If there were a similar 15-point shift across the country, the Democrats probably would end up with around two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives. The question, now, is whether this movement will be fully reflected in national polling.”

Recent midterm elections have generally favored the party that does not control the White House.

Republicans have a seven-seat majority in the House and a six-seat majority in the Senate.

Bipartisan protest 

Four Senate Republicans: Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Rand Paul (Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine) joined  Democrats on Wednesday in voting to support a non-binding resolution that calls for the removal of the 25% tariff Trump imposed on Canadian imports.

The resolution is merely a verbal affirmation.  It is not expected to come up for a vote in the House.

Sen. Paul said in an interview with The Hill’s “Rising” prior to Trump’s announcement on Wednesday that nothing good will come from penalizing trade.

“I think it’s just economically a fallacy to think that it’ll help the country. Tariffs are a tax, and if you tax trade or if you tax anything, you’ll get less of it.”

Bryan Renbaum

Bryan is an award-winning political journalist who has extensive experience covering Congress and Maryland state government.

His work includes coverage of the election of Donald Trump, the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and attorneys general William Barr and Jeff Sessions-as well as that of the Maryland General Assembly, Gov. Larry Hogan, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bryan has broken stories involving athletic and sexual assault scandals with the Baltimore Post-Examiner.

His original UMBC investigation gained international attention, was featured in People Magazine and he was interviewed by ABC’s “Good Morning America” and local radio stations. Bryan broke subsequent stories documenting UMBC’s omission of a sexual assault on their daily crime log and a federal investigation related to the university’s handling of an alleged sexual assault.