UMBC poll: Moore leads Cox by 2-1 margin in gubernatorial race
Results embargoed until 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday, October 6, 2026
Press Contact Information:
Mileah Kromer, Ph.D.
Director, UMBC Institute of Politics
Cherie Parker
Director, UMBC Media Relations
Part 1 Topics:
• Maryland governor’s race
• Strength of candidate support
• Enthusiasm about voting and method of voting
• Perceived ideology of the major party gubernatorial candidates
• Perceptions of the Maryland Democratic and Republican parties
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (Baltimore): The UMBC Poll surveyed 776 (MOE=±3.5%) Maryland likely voters from Tuesday, September 22 to Sunday, September 27, 2026. Please refer to the methodology statement for information on data collection and sample demographics, and to the topline results for question wording.
Click here for results by demographics and question order.
For previous UMBC Poll results and information about the UMBC Institute of Politics, visit https://politics.umbc.edu/.
Part 2 of this poll will be released on Wednesday, October 7, and Part 3 will be released on Thursday, October 8. Both releases will be available at 12:01 a.m.
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The UMBC Poll identified likely voters from a sample of 842 registered voters using a standard screen based on self-reported likelihood of voting. Respondents who said they were “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote in the November 2026 general election were classified as likely voters.
• Not at all likely: 2 percent
• Chances are 50-50: 5 percent
• Very likely: 25 percent
• Absolutely certain: 67 percent
• Don’t know: 1 percent
2026 Maryland gubernatorial election
If the election for governor were held today, 51 percent of likely voters say they would
vote for Democratic candidate Wes Moore, and 24 percent say they would vote for
Republican candidate Dan Cox. Another 3 percent would vote for Green Party candidate
Andy Ellis, 3 percent would vote for Working Class Party candidate Cathy White, and 5
percent would vote for some other candidate, while 14 percent say they don’t know or
haven’t decided.
Support for Moore and Cox among likely voters, by party registration:
• Among Democrats: 72 percent for Moore, 4 percent for Cox, and 13 percent are
undecided
• Among Republicans: 6 percent for Moore, 75 percent for Cox, and 10 percent are
undecided
• Among Unaffiliated: 40 percent for Moore, 14 percent for Cox, and 27 percent
are undecided
Likely voters who selected a candidate were asked whether they are set on their choice for governor:
74 percent say they are set on the candidate they selected, and 23 percent say they could change their mind.
• Among Moore voters: 84 percent are set on their choice, and 15 percent could
change their mind.
• Among Cox voters: 74 percent are set on their choice, and 19 percent could
change their mind.
Enthusiasm about voting in 2026
Maryland likely voters were asked how enthusiastic they are about voting in the November 2026 elections:
Very or somewhat: 79 percent
• Among Democrats: 81 percent
• Among Republicans: 80 percent
• Among Unaffiliated: 75 percent
Not at all or a little: 20 percent
• Among Democrats: 18 percent
• Among Republicans: 18 percent
• Among Unaffiliated: 25 percent
Planned method of voting
Likely voters were asked how they plan to cast their ballot this November:
• Vote in-person before Election Day during the early voting period: 30 percent
• Vote by mail, either by sending in their ballot or putting it in a drop box: 31
percent
• Vote in-person on Election Day: 35 percent
Perceived ideology of the major party gubernatorial candidates
Likely voters were asked which label best describes the politics of each major party candidate for governor.
Wes Moore
Democratic Candidate
Dan Cox
Republican Candidate
Very conservative 2% 31%
Conservative 6% 29%
Moderate 36% 11%
Progressive 30% 2%
Very progressive 18% 1%
Don’t know 5% 26% 4
Perceptions of the Maryland Democratic and Republican parties
Likely voters were asked whether each of six characteristics describes the Maryland Democratic Party and the Maryland Republican Party. The table below shows the percentage of likely voters who say each characteristic describes the party.
Maryland Democratic Party
Maryland Republican Party
Organized 47% 43%
Effective at winning elections in the state 72% 25%
Welcomes different viewpoints 47% 27%
Out-of-touch with average voters 54% 66%
Controlled by special interests or big donors 59% 71%
Too extreme in their policy positions 36% 64% 5
Methodology Statement
The UMBC Poll is conducted under the auspices of the UMBC Institute of Politics (IoP) and is funded by the UMBC College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences.
The UMBC Poll surveyed 776 Maryland likely voters from Tuesday, September 22 to Sunday, September 27, 2026. The poll was conducted by live interviewers and text-to-web utilizing a dual-frame (landline and cell phone) random sample stratified by county.
Text-to-web: 65 percent
Live-caller cell phone: 28 percent
Live-caller landline: 7 percent
Interviews were conducted from 12 p.m. to 8 p.m., and interviewers attempted to reach respondents with working phone numbers up to 3 times. ReconMR provided the sample and data collection.
There is a 95 percent probability that the survey results have the following percentage point sampling error from the actual population distribution for any given survey question: MOE=±3.5% for the sample of 776 Maryland likely voters.
The margin of sampling error is higher for subgroups and is not adjusted for design effects. Like all public opinion polls, the UMBC Poll is also subject to non-sampling error, including non-response bias, question-order effects, and question-wording effects.
The topline tables include the questions as worded. The order in which the questions were administered to respondents can be found here.
Mileah Kromer, Director of the UMBC Institute of Politics (IoP), designs the survey questionnaires and analyzes the data collected by the UMBC Poll. Research assistants Trisha Sirsat, Audrey Grutzik, Sofia Cabrera, and Khizar Qazi assist with each stage of the process under her direction. Their involvement reflects the IoP’s mission to facilitate student learning in applied politics and to produce public-facing research on political, policy, and social issues for the betterment of Maryland.
The UMBC Poll is committed to methodological transparency. If you have questions about the poll’s methodology, contact Mileah Kromer, Director, UMBC Institute of Politics, at [email protected].
Sample Demographics (in percent)
Maryland
Likely
Voters
n=776
(MOE=±3.5%)
Gender
Male 48
Female 52
Age 18-24 6
25-34 17
35-44 18
45-54 17
55-64 18
65+ 24
Race
White 47
Black 31
Hispanic/Latino 12
Asian 7
All other 3
Education
High school diploma or less 30
Some college or associate’s degree 21
Bachelor’s degree 25
Graduate or professional degree 24
Geography
Montgomery County 17
Prince George’s County 14
Baltimore County 15
Anne Arundel County 9
Baltimore City 9
Central Region 12
Western Region 9
Eastern Shore Region 8
Southern Region 7
Central region: Carroll, Harford, and Howard Counties
Western region: Allegany, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington Counties
Eastern Shore region: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset,
Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester Counties
Southern region: Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s Counties
Weighting
The UMBC Poll data are weighted by gender, age, race, geography, and educational attainment to represent the Maryland voter targets established by the combination of sources from ReconMR including Maryland State Board of Elections (2026), Current Population Survey data (2024), and the American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year estimates (2025) for the state of Maryland. Results are reported as column percentages and may not sum to exactly 100 due to weighting and rounding.
Other Sample Demographics (in percent)
Maryland
Likely
Voters
n=776
(MOE=±3.5%)
Party
Democrat 60
Republican 25
Unaffiliated 14
Other party 1
Ideology
Conservative 22
Moderate 37
Progressive 41
Income
Under $40,000 14
$40,000 to under $75,000 20
$75,000 to under $125,000 29
$125,000 or more 37
The UMBC Poll data are not weighted by these characteristics.
The UMBC Institute of Politics is a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations and the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative.
Identifying Likely Voters
The UMBC Poll identified likely voters from a sample of registered voters using a standard screen based on self-reported likelihood of voting. Respondents who said they were “absolutely certain” or “very likely” to vote in the November 2026 general election
were classified as likely voters.
Q: LV
What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2026 general election for governor, Congress, and other state offices
— are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or not at all likely to vote?
Count Percent
Not at all likely 17 2
Chances are 50-50 40 5
LV Very likely 210 25
LV Absolutely certain 566 67
Don’t know 9 1
Refused 0
Topline Results
The topline results below represent the sample of 776 likely voters. Click here for results by demographics. Results are reported as
column percentages and may not sum to exactly 100 due to weighting and rounding. The questionnaire below reflects the text-to-
web version of the survey. Question wording and response options were the same across modes, with minor adaptations for live-
caller vs. web-based administration. Items in brackets appeared in a randomized order.
Label Question
Maryland
Likely
Voters
n=776
(MOE=±3.5%)
Questions held for future release.
Q: MDDEMS The next two sets of questions are about how voters sometimes describe political parties. First, please indicate whether
each of the characteristics below describes the Maryland Democratic Party:
Q: D_ORGANIZED to Q: D_EXTREME appeared in a randomized order.
Label Question Does NOT describe, Describes, Don’t know, Refused
Q: D_ORGANIZED Organized 34 47 19 0
Q: D_EFFECTIVE Effective at winning elections in the state 18 72 9 1
Q: D_WELCOME Welcomes different viewpoints 41 47 11 1
Q: D_TOUCH Out-of-touch with average voters 34 54 12 1
Q: D_CONTROL Controlled by special interests or big donors 23 59 17 1
Q: D_EXTREME Too extreme in their policy positions 55 36 7 1
Q: MDGOP Please indicate whether each of the characteristics below describes the Maryland Republican Party:
Q: R_ORGANIZED to Q: R_EXTREME appeared in a randomized order.
Label Question Does NOT describe, Describes, Don’t know, Refused
Q: R_ORGANIZED Organized 40 43 16 2
Q: R_EFFECTIVE Effective at winning elections in the state 61 25 13 1
Q: R_WELCOME Welcomes different viewpoints 65 27 7 1
Q: R_TOUCH Out-of-touch with average voters 27 66 6 1
Q: R_CONTROL Controlled by special interests or big donors 18 71 10 1
Q: R_EXTREME Too extreme in their policy positions 27 64 8 1
Questions held for future release.
Q: ENTHUSIASM How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2026:
Percent
Not at all 12
A little 8
Somewhat 18
Very 61
Don’t know 0
Refused 0
Q: METHOD
Maryland voters can cast their ballots in several ways this November. Which one will you most likely use in the upcoming election:
Percent
Vote in-person before Election Day during the early voting
period 30
Vote by mail either by sending in my ballot or putting it in a
drop box 31
Vote in-person on Election Day 35
Don’t know/haven’t decided how I will cast my ballot yet 4
Refused 0
Q: GOV26 If the 2026 election for Governor of Maryland were held today, would you vote for:
Percent
Wes Moore, the Democratic candidate 51
Dan Cox, the Republican candidate 24
Andy Ellis, the Green Party candidate 3
Cathy White, the Working Class Party candidate 3
Some other candidate 5
Don’t know/haven’t decided 14
Refused 1
Q: CHANGE Is there a chance that you could change your mind, or are you set on this candidate for Maryland governor?
Percent
Set on this candidate 74
Could change my mind 23
Don’t know 4
Refused 0
Q: MOORE_IDEO In your opinion, which label best describes Democratic Governor Wes Moore’s politics? Is he:
Percent
Very conservative 2
Conservative 6
Moderate 36
Progressive 30
Very progressive 18
Don’t know 5
Refused 3
Q: COX_IDEO Which label best describes Republican nominee for Maryland governor Dan Cox’s politics? Is he:
Percent
Very conservative 31
Conservative 29
Moderate 11
Progressive 2
Very progressive 1
Don’t know 26
Refused 1
Questions held for future release.
University Mission
UMBC is a dynamic public research university integrating teaching, research and service to benefit the citizens of Maryland. As an Honors University, the campus offers academically talented students a strong undergraduate liberal arts foundation that prepares them for graduate and professional study, entry into the workforce, and community service and leadership.
UMBC emphasizes science, engineering, information technology, human services and public policy at the graduate level.
UMBC contributes to the economic development of the State and the region through entrepreneurial initiatives, workforce training, K- 16 partnerships, and technology commercialization in collaboration with public agencies and the corporate community.
UMBC is dedicated to cultural and ethnic diversity, social responsibility and lifelong learning.
Our Mission
The UMBC Institute of Politics (IoP) produces and supports public-facing and community-engaged research and events on political, policy, and social issues for the betterment of Maryland.
The IoP operates under the auspices of the UMBC College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences.