For Election Outcomes, Listen to Those in Political Rhetoric
I had read all of the overconfident prognosticators who predicted Kamala’s victory (accent on the first syllable, Harris Haters), and I smiled.
Here without editing is my Facebook post the morning of the election, before I knew of any votes:
Election Proclamation: Trump Will Win and No One Will Be Able to Explain to Me My One Surprise
Doubling Down on My Prediction: As I wrote previously on my Facebook page and have said recently on a variety of media, I think Trump will win. I think it is like 1980 when people had serious doubts about Ronald Reagan but didn’t, as Americans, want to throw up their hands and wimpily say “We cannot do better than Carter has done for the last 4 years.”
Win or lose, Kamala has run the dumbest political and rhetorical campaign I have ever witnessed…as I said on WBFF this a.m., you don’t refuse an audience with Joe Rogan, you don’t refuse to say publicly how you voted on Prop 36 designed to make multiple shoplifting a felony and increase penalties for fentanyl commerce, miss the Correspondents’ Dinner, and call your opponent a fascist.
I am not unsophisticated in politics, having taught political persuasion for over 1/2 a century; the only thing that has surprised me — the \only\ thing — in this election campaign is Harrison Ford’s endorsement of Kamala Harris.
None of this means that I am incapable of error.
And That’s Vatz (c. 2023 Tony Pagnotti)
All of those who say they have virtually never been wrong – Allan Lichtman, are you listening — how are things today?
My prediction – rarely do I make predictions and almost never with certitude – was based on 50 years of examining elections and rarely making predictions.
There are multiple lessons for the Democrats, some few of which are in my post, but the most important one is this: nominate people who are good and wise at running the government and who are not noxious to a near-majority of the country.
The reason Harris never answered material questions is that there are no responses that address irresponsible political decisions: ignoring the illegal migrant invasion, not supporting more strongly Israel, our singular Middle East major ally, spending the United States into penury (take note as well, Mr. Trump) and ignoring crime and public safety on the streets.
There is of course extensive schadenfreude, which Democrats should take with good grace.
As I have stated repeatedly and written, Donald Trump is a repellent personality, but Americans will support a candidate – I did — when the alternative and her party are so bereft of good judgment.
Richard E. Vatz https://wp.towson.edu/vatz/ is a Distinguished Professor Emeritus of political rhetoric at Towson University and author of The Only Authentic of Persuasion: the Agenda-Spin Model (Bookwrights House, 2024) and over 200 other works, essays, lectures, and op-eds. He is the benefactor of the Richard E. Vatz Best Debater Award at Towson. The Van Bokkelen Auditorium at Towson University has been named after him.