Technological obsolescence can’t be overcome

Remember the phrase “planned obsolescence”? It was a business strategy that was employed by manufacturers to design and build into into its products, from conception, the process of becoming obsolete or unfashionable in a shorter amount of time than would occur naturally.

The accepted wisdom used to be that automobiles had lifespans no greater than 100,000 miles. Was this because Detroit didn’t have the technology to engineer a car with a greater lifespan? No, the technology existed, as proven by cars built by Germans. Mercedes and BMWs routinely lasted three or four times as long.

Fins and chrome

If American cars, back when American automakers dominated the domestic market, were carefully maintained by their owners and babied, the obsolescence of fashion kicked in. Back before the energy crisis began to dictate that aerodynamic body designs made most cars pretty much look all alike, cars were fashion statements that were designed to be transient, with such design features as big chrome grills and sidelines, useless space-flight inspired tail fins, multi-tone paint jobs and exceedingly long front ends.

These were not designed to appeal to the car buyer’s sense of automotive aesthetics, but rather as adornments that could be tinkered with or eliminated making the car look hopelessly dated when compared to the newest models.

But as outlandish, or beautiful, as some of these designs were, the cars were engineered well below standards that the industry was capable of: the car was purposely designed to wear out mechanically after 100,000 miles.

This strategy was employed not just by automakers but by manufacturers of most so-called durable goods, from refrigerators to toasters. But though the technology to make them better certainly existed, they were still better than most of their foreign counterparts, and “Made in America” was a mark of quality known the world over.

But what does this have to do with consumer and enterprise technology? Planned obsolescence has given way to engineering obsolescence. The pace of technological advancements has practically guaranteed that that shiny new state of the art cellphone, tablet, or PC will be obsolete by the time it has been built, assembled, marketed, and sold in volume to consumers. Intel, for instance, is always working two generations ahead of the CPUs in the latest computers.

Eniac on a chip

This is not planned obsolescence. It is a result of the increasing speed of technological advancements. The room-sized ENIAC computer of 1956 had the processing power of the $4 chip that produces music in today’s holiday greeting cards. Every ten years processors grow 100 percent smaller, with comparable increases in data crunching power.

Your cellphone in your pocket is 100 times more powerful than the top of the line PC of ten years ago.

And that tablet, whether it be an iPad or a Android powered Samsung Galaxy or Google Nexus, is as powerful as top of the line PCs of just two years ago. Not to worry, however, as any computing device you buy today is already rendered obsolete by the next iteration being prepared for the market even as you unbox your new device.

So by these standards it’s never a good time to buy a new phone, tablet or computer. Not only will the next iteration be twice as fast within six months, the model that follows will be twice as fast in three months. Or would be, it should be mentioned, if it were actually built and put on the market as quickly as it could be prepared by the maker for sale to the public.

Truth is that technology exists today that is a couple generations ahead of what is commercially available, and is being withheld to allow consumers the time to enjoy the fiction that they have the latest and greatest.

But this is beginning to change; the market for new computing devices is growing increasingly competitive, and new products are being rushed into production at increasingly rapid intervals.

Sea change

And there is vast confusion over the form and function of these new devices. Will tablets replace PCs? They have certainly cut into their market share, as the largest manufacturers have seen double-digit drops in overall sales, while tablets and so-called hybrids (large touch-screen tablets with detachable keyboards) have seen comparable increases in growth of sales.

In short, the computing market is in disarray, with entire lines of new devices (netbooks, for example) quickly making a big splash in sales then practically disappearing from store shelves within a single year.

New products such as wearables — smart watches, fitness monitors, Google Glass — are vying to be the next big thing.

The truth is that the technology is advancing so quickly, new devices appearing then vanishing, nobody knows what the Next Big Thing in Internet-connected devices will be a year from now, one year having been the traditional cycle of the introduction of new products. The pundits are stumped as well, as even a cursory read of the personal tech industry press reveals.

And, it must be mentioned, much of this confusion is due to the passing of Steve Jobs, whom the tech media depended on to invent and introduce entirely new product categories, or at least define them and dominate the market for them. These have included in the past all-in-one desktop computers, the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad.

Rumors circulating before his death had focused on some new Apple-grade innovative product in the wings, such as a highly refined self-contained smart watch or the much anticipated Apple TV, which Jobs was preparing to spring upon the public.

When to buy

So when is a good time to buy? And just exactly what device should you buy, as product categories blur and new ones are waiting in the wings? This is important because you don’t want to get stuck with an orphan device. The tech chattering classes say the smart money is on hybrids, which offer the convenience of a tablet and the functionality of a full fledged PC. But size matters, and few people want to carry around a 13-inch screen designed to dock with a full sized keyboard.

The only constant among experts observing the consumer tech landscape is, in a word, portability. We have become so connected to our jobs, family and friends through the Internet that we want to take them with us wherever we go.

So, again, when is a good time to buy and what devices will future-proof your decision?

Here’s what I have settled on till the market shakes out and the Next Big Thing arrives. Since nobody knows what that will be, I’ve settled on one of each of the three device form factors that the pundits are saying will be obsolete once they have found a way to converge the functionality of each into a single device.

A midrange cellphone, a high end tablet, and a laptop computer. Each duplicates many of the functions of the others, but each has unique features I don’t want to part with. And I don’t think that digital convergence will render any one of them obsolete in the near future. And in technology years, that could be tomorrow or in the next several months.

What’s next?

This especially considering that no single device is waiting in the wings to combine their unique functionality.

And I don’t see how it will be possible to do so until either huge advances are made in smart body implants and arrive on the scene, or some new, as of yet unconceived product category is hatched.

Sure, phones are becoming more like tablets, and tablets more like PCs, but each still serves a unique, indispensable function.

The only game changing device I see that could become essential is a truly smart watch, which would serve as a hub for current devices, not entirely replace them.

And I’d bet on Apple to come up with the perfect range of features and functionality to set the standard for all smart watches to come.

We are in an awkward, currently directionless phase right now. The big money is going into the development of artificial intelligence and quantum computing, which when scaled down and implemented on our devices will truly revolutionize how we connect to and interact with the Internet, but we are still a few years away from these advances being integrated into our daily lives.

Meanwhile, I’ll stick with my current devices. So if you’re waiting for a good time to buy, go ahead and spend your money now, replacing your current devices at need. The new ones are surely more advanced than your old ones, have many more features, and you don’t risk spending good money on a new class of device that will likely be orphaned like that $200 netbook you didn’t buy during its brief run as the future of computing just last year.

Just around the corner

I believe the future lies in breakthrough software, such as natural language recognition, truly smart, maybe even conscious artificial intelligence, and distributed computing, in which all your electronics are web connected, the so-called Internet of Things.

Planned obsolescence is no longer just a business model. It is the natural outgrowth of the accelerated rate of technological advances.

I think it’s safe to say our current device paradigms will be with us another five years. So continue to read and send your emails and texts, check your social media updates, and browse the web on your five-inch or larger smartphone; consume media, play games and do light office work on your tablet; and work on office documents, spreadsheets and proprietary business software on your PC.

The Next Big Thing is surely coming, but not for a few years yet.

As David Bowie sang, “Five years. That’s all we’ve got.”