Shelley Moore Capito on the verge of making Republican history in West Virginia

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is poised to become the first Republican and the first female to represent West Virginia in the U.S Senate since 1958.  Most pundits agree that due to her wide spread popularity, she will likely defeat Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, and succeed retiring Senator Jay Rockefeller in Washington.

Capito, the daughter of a former governor, has a special ability to connect with voters in a state that is economically liberal and culturally conservative.  Once considered a shoe-in for Democrats, West Virginia has gone Republican in every presidential election since 2000.

This main reason for this change in voting patterns can be attributed to one factor: the perception that the Democratic Party is hostile toward the coal industry.  For more than a century, coal has been the lifeblood of the Mountain State’s economy and it has provided jobs for residents of a state that is ranked near the bottom in per capita income.

Shelley Moore Capito (Public Domain)
Shelley Moore Capito (Wikipedia)
NatalieTennant (Wikipedia)
Natalie Tennant (Wikipedia)

Capito and Tennant are acutely aware of this, and are trying to reassure voters that they can be trusted on this issue.  In their respective campaign ads, both have emphasized that they will oppose the Obama administration’s efforts to marginalize the coal industry.

However, Tennant is having a difficult time convincing West Virginians that she is a different kind of Democrat than the President.  And that could prove to be fatal in a state where Obama lost by nearly 27 points in 2012.

WV GOP Chairman Conrad Lucas is acutely aware of this and believes his candidate is more in-sync with Mountain state voters.

“Congresswoman Capito’s views align much better with West Virginians than those of Secretary Tennant,” Lucas said.  “Shelley has been very clear with her support for the coal industry, opposition to increased spending and stands against the Obama agenda while Secretary Tennant endorsed President Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and was hand-picked by Harry Reid.”

Daniel Van Hoogstraten, Communications Director of the WV Democratic Party, disagrees.

“Natalie Tennant’s record and vision for West Virginia jobs, families and our middle class resonate with West Virginians, while Congresswoman Capito has failed to defend her record of serving Wall Street and her own self-interests,” Van Hoogstraten said.

He also added that Tennant will not hesitate to challenge the Obama administration when their policies conflict with the interests of West Virginians.

Robert Duval, an associate professor of political science at West Virginia University, said Capito will likely be victorious for the same reasons Lucas suggested.  But he also added a caveat.

“Perhaps the largest paradox about voter sentiment in this race is that West Virginia is one of the states that has largely benefited substantially from the Affordable Care Act, while most people have negative perceptions of it only when it is referred to as “Obamacare,”  Duval said.  “Negative branding is often a successful election strategy, and one that is seldom avoided by candidates from either party these days.”

Regardless of the aforementioned opinions, all three parties agree on one thing: it is best to distance ones-self from Barack Obama when seeking state-wide office in WV.

The latest data suggests that Capito is benefiting from such sentiments.

A Rasmussen poll taken early last week shows the Republican leading her Democratic opponent by eleven points (50 percent to 39 percent).

If Capito is elected, it would not only help the GOP regain control of the Senate, but it would also advance the argument that Republicans are making inroads in West Virginia.

It would also mean the end of an era in West Virginia politics.